4.2 — Likelihood assessment
Page /ebios/synthesescenarios — consolidated view of all operational scenarios (created on page 4.1), with their likelihood rating and the resulting risk level. This is the consolidated view of Workshop 4, before moving on to Workshop 5.
Header
A Description switch shows/hides the description of each scenario under its name.
Tabs
| Tab | Content |
|---|---|
| 🗂 Scenarios | Consolidated table of all operational scenarios |
| 📐 Rating | Configuration of the rating method (identical to page 4.1 — Express / Standard / Advanced) |
Table columns (Scenarios tab)
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| # | Row number |
| ID | Scenario identifier (Sxx badge) |
| Operational scenario | Scenario name; clicking the row opens the detailed editor (page 4.1). Description can be shown via the switch |
| Strat. ref. | Reference to the source strategic scenario (Workshop 3) |
| Risk source | Carried over from the strategic scenario's RS/OT pair |
| PP | Stakeholder used as a proxy, if the path goes through one |
| Targeted objective | Associated targeted objective |
| Feared event | Attached feared event (Workshop 1) |
| Severity | Carried over from the feared event's severity |
| L | Scenario likelihood |
| Level | Resulting risk level (Severity × Likelihood), coloured according to the configured scale |
Likelihood rating (L column)
The behaviour of the L column depends on the rating method chosen in the Rating tab:
- Express method — likelihood is entered directly in the cell: click the badge to open a selector. Once set manually, a 🔒 lock icon appears; the ✕ button clears the entered value to return to automatic calculation.
- Standard / Advanced methods — likelihood is calculated automatically from the ratings entered action by action in the scenario editor (page 4.1); the cell shows calc. and cannot be edited directly here.
Click a row for the detailed editor
This page is a consolidated view: to edit a scenario's action sequence or adjust its detailed rating, click the row to open the full editor (page 4.1 — Operational scenarios).
Severity / Likelihood consistency
The risk level shown here (Severity × Likelihood) is the one carried over into the risk summary of Workshop 5. Check that every scenario has an associated feared event — without it, severity cannot be determined.
Next steps
Scenarios and their risk level are carried over into the risk summary of Workshop 5, the starting point of the treatment strategy (5.2 — Treatment strategy).
See also Workshop 4 — Overview and 4.1 — Operational scenarios.